2022 WORLD CUP EUROPEAN QUALIFIERS GROUP STAGE PREVIEW

Yes, its that time again. The 2022 World Cup qualifiers are about to start next week. So as per usual, I have done my own group stage preview. There will be a total of 13 teams to qualify for the tournament, which will be held in Qatar. The qualifiers will be the 10 group winners, then the three final places will come from the 10 second place teams, with the two best nations league group winners to finish outside the top two. They will all go into three separate play off paths, each with a two legged semi final and then final to decide the final three teams to qualify. Did you get all that?

Below is my group by group preview…..The position of the teams is where I think they will finish in the group.

GROUP A

PORTUGAL
SERBIA
REP OF IRELAND
AZERBAIJAN
LUXEMBOURG

I personally feel this will be one of the tougher qualifying groups. In 2018 both Portugal and Serbia topped their groups with Rep of Ireland finishing second to Serbia by two points, they then went into the play offs and got destroyed by Denmark. In the 2018 qualifiers Ronaldo finished second top scorer with 15 goals and Andre Silva fourth with 9, but I doubt a four year older Ronaldo, in his mid thirties will have the same impact throughout. This may narrow the gap for Serbia and Rep of Ireland trying to top the group where the home ties will be extremely important.

To add to that, for Euro2020, where Ronaldo finished joint second top scorer with 11 goals, Portugal qualified but finished second to Ukraine. Serbia in that same group, finished third and went to the play off’s, beat Norway in the semi’s but lost to Scotland on pens in the final. Serbia’s Mitrovic finished joint third top scorer with 10 goals. Rep of Ireland on the other hand, finished third behind Switzerland and Denmark in their Euro2020 group, went to the play offs and lost to Slovakia on pens.

Azerbaijan & Luxembourg have both improved and avoided finishing bottom in 2018, so will have a good battle this time to see who’ll stay off the bottom. However, for Euro2020, Azerbaijan finished their group bottom with one point where as Luxembourg finished their group second from bottom with four points.

GROUP B

SPAIN
SWEDEN
KOSOVO
GREECE
GEORGIA

Naturally, you cant bet against Spain topping the group. You have to go back to 2006 for the last time they didn’t top a group. In 2018 they topped their group containing Italy, winning nine games from ten. They also topped their Euro2020 group with ease. I am expecting Sweden to finish second. In 2018 where Marcus Berg finished fifth top scorer with 8 goals, they finished second to France, knocking Holland out in the process. They then went to the play off’s and beat Italy 1-0 on agg to qualify. They also qualified for Euro202o finishing second to Spain.

The real interesting thing in this group will be how well Kosovo can do? I think they are a real dark horse. Although in 2018 they finished bottom of their group, losing nine out of ten games, in the last four years they have improved considerably and finished third in their Euro2020 group behind England and Czech Rep. They went to the play off’s and unfortunately lost in the semi’s to North Macedonia, but with a bit more experience, they could give Greece and maybe Sweden a run for their money.

However, Greece have a very good qualifying record and finished 2018 second to Belgium, only losing one game, but lost in the play off’s to Croatia. They also failed to qualify for Euro2020, finishing third behind Italy and Finland. I have no doubt Georgia will finish bottom. However, they did finish second bottom in their last two major qualifications. In WC 2018 it was five points thanks to five draws. In Euro2020 it was 8 points thanks to two wins and two draws.

GROUP C

ITALY
SWITZERLAND
NORTHERN IRELAND
BULGARIA
LITHUANIA

I really find this group bizarre, especially as Italy failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. Although they did top their Euro2020 group, winning 10 from 10 games. All things considered, this is a very favourable draw for Italy and I cannot see them having much trouble topping the group. For me, Switzerland will be their only real competitor, Switzerland have a good record in qualifiers, they were the best second place team in 2018 and only lost out to Portugal on goal difference, then defeated Northern Ireland 1-0 in the play offs. So the two games in Sept and Oct will be key as Northern Ireland seek revenge. In Euro2020 Switzerland topped their group by one point from Denmark.

Northern Ireland will be hot on their heels though. In 2018 they did very well to qualify second behind Germany, above Czech Rep and Norway. However, in Euro2016, they also finished second behind Germany and Holland, went to the play off’s and as stated, narrowly lost to Switzerland.

I am not sure Bulgaria can cause much upsets, in 2018 they finished fourth in a tough group behind France, Sweden and Holland. In Euro2020 they also finished fourth, behind England, Czech Rep & Kosovo with a disappointing six points. Lastly, Lithuania will be hard pressed to improve on the six points they gained in the 2018 qualifiers, with one less team to play. In Euro2020 they finished bottom with just one point from eight games.

GROUP D

FRANCE
UKRAINE
FINLAND
BOSNIA
KAZAKHSTAN

For me this looks a real straight forward group for France, especially when you consider both Ukraine (2008) & Bosnia (2014) have only been to the World Cup once in their history. with Finland and Kazakhstan both never qualified. In 2018 France  topped their group by four points from Sweden, on the way to winning the World Cup. They also topped their Euro2020 group two points above Turkey. I am however, expecting a tough fight for second, Ukraine have in different form. They missed out to Iceland and Croatia in 2018, but topped their Euro2020 group above Portugal and Serbia, so will be confident.

Finland maybe the dark horses in this group. In 2018 they finished second bottom behind Iceland, Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey. However, in Euro2020, they finished second behind Italy, above Greece and Bosnia to qualify for their first major tournament with Teemu Pukki finishing joint third top scorer with 10 goals.

Bosnia could be on the slide and will have their work cut out. They missed out in 2018, finishing third behind Belgium and Greece. They also had a disappointing EURO2020 campaign, where they finished fourth behind Italy, Finland and Greece, so will either relish or regret playing Finland again. Kazakhstan have improved in their last two qualifiers, scoring three points in 2018, then ten points in Euro2020, but it will be very tough to improve on that this time around.

GROUP E

BELGIUM
CZECH REP
WALES
BELARUS
ESTONIA

This will be another very straight forward group for Belgium, where I don’t anticipate many problems. In their last 20 qualifying games for World Cup 2018 & Euro 2020, their record reads 19 wins and one draw, with Lukaku finishing joint third top scorer in 2018 with 11 goals and I expect much of the same. The real story is who will finish second. In 2018 Czech Rep missed out to Germany and Northern Ireland, but qualified for Euro 2020 behind England and above Kosovo & Bulgaria. Wales also missed out in 2018, finishing third behind Serbia and Rep Ireland, but qualified for Euro2020 second behind Croatia, above Slovakia & Hungary.

The games between Czech Rep and Wales on 30th March and 8th October could go a long way to see who finishes second. Belarus will hope to make some in roads on the those two nations. In 2018 Belarus finished bottom of their group a point behind Luxembourg. However, for Euro2020 they finished second bottom 3 points above Estonia.

Estonia will hope to improve on that Euro2020 campaign, where they drew one and lost seven games. Prior to that in WC2018 group, they finished a respectable fourth, with 11 points, above Cyprus and Gibraltar. In this group Estonia will resume their rivalry with Belarus and hope to improve.

GROUP F

DENMARK
AUSTRIA
SCOTLAND
ISRAEL
FAROE ISLANDS
MOLDOVA

This could well be one of the toughest groups to call, and that is mainly because I am not convinced about any of these nations. However, I am expecting Denmark to top the group, in 2018 where Eriksen finished joint third top scorer with 11 goal. They finished second behind Poland, then destroyed Rep of Ireland 5-1 on agg in the play offs. They also qualified for Euro2020 second behind Switzerland. Despite a terrible 2018 campaign where Austria finished fourth behind Serbia, Rep of Ireland and Wales. They redeemed themselves by qualifying for Euro2020, in second place behind Poland, but again i’m not fully convinced.

Scotland have not qualified for a World Cup since 1998. In 2018 they finished third behind England and Slovakia. However, they sneaked into Euro2020 via the play offs, after finishing third behind Belgium and Russia, then beating Israel in the semi’s and Serbia in the final which will give them a boost.

Israel, after losing to Scotland in the semi’s, will be seeking revenge, and will try to improve on a respectable fourth in 2018, behind Spain, Italy and Albania. For Euro2020, they finished second bottom but Eran Zahavi finished joint second top scorer with 11 goals. Faroe and Moldova will battle to not finish bottom of the group, something the ever improving Faroe Islands have managed in their last two campaigns and Moldova have not.

GROUP G

NETHERLANDS
NORWAY
TURKEY
MONTENEGRO
LATVIA
GIBRALTAR

After finishing runners up and third in the last two World Cup’s, In 2018 Netherlands finished their qualifying group third behind France and Sweden and missed the finals. However, Holland have improved considerably, getting to the Nations League final in 2019 and qualifying for Euro2020 in second, two points behind Germany, with Gini Wijnaldum finishing joint fifth top scorer with 8 goals and I dont anticipate any issues in this group. Although second will be a tough one to call. I feel Norway may just take it. They finished fourth in 2018, behind Germany, Northern Ireland and Czech Rep and missed out. For Euro2020, after finishing third behind Spain and Sweden, they lost in the play off semi to Serbia.

Turkey will be pushing them all the way, although they have only qualified once for a World Cup, where they finished third in that tournament of 2002. In 2018, they finished fourth behind Iceland, Croatia and Ukraine and missed out. However,  they qualified for Euro2020, finishing second, only two points behind France and four points ahead of Iceland.

Montenegro are still trying to qualify for their first major tournament and narrowly missed out in 2018 as they finished third behind Poland & Denmark. Unfortunately, they finished bottom of their Euro2020 group, drawing three and losing five. They could be pushed by Latvia, who are are trying to improve on their second bottom finish with seven points in 2018, but did finish bottom of their Euro2020 campaign, with just three points. Gibraltar on the other hand. are still looking for their first points in qualifying.

GROUP H

CROATIA
RUSSIA
SLOVAKIA
CYPRUS
SLOVENIA
MALTA

This is a really interesting group with several plots and sub plots. That said, I am expecting the WC2018 runners up Croatia to top the group. In 2018 they actually finished second to Iceland and advanced in the play offs, beating Greece 4-1. They also qualified top of their Euro2020 group, ahead of Wales & Slovakia. Russia should push them though, they performed admirably in their home world cup knocking out Spain, then losing to Croatia on pens in the QF’s. They followed that up by qualifying for Euro2020 in second place, behind Belgium where Artem Dzyuba finished fourth top scorer with 9 goals.

I am going with Slovakia to finish third, in 2018 they finished second behind England but missed out on a play off spot due to away defeats to Slovenia & Scotland. However, they finished third in their Euro2020 group, behind Croatia and Wales, went to the play off’s and really upset the applecart by beating Rep Ireland on pens in the semi and Northern Ireland in the final after extra time. I feel their home games with Russia and Croatia will be very interesting ones.

I personally think Cyprus are improving as a nation and could finish ahead of Slovenia, but to do this they will have to improving on their 10 points in each of their last two major qualification groups. Slovenia on the other hand, finished fourth in both their last two groups on 15 and 14 points respectively, but I think they could be on the slide. Although Malta have improved going from finishing on one point in 2018, to three points in Euro 2020. I’m not expecting them to finish anywhere but bottom.

GROUP I

ENGLAND
POLAND
HUNGARY
ALBANIA
ANDORRA
SAN MARINO

This will be another straight forward group. I am fully expecting England to finish top, the last time they failed to top a WC qualifying group was 1994. They also comfortably topped their Euro202o group where Harry Kane finished top scorer with 12 goals and Sterling finished joint fifth with 8 goals. The last time they failed to top a Euro group was 2008. Poland will try to push them all the way and their two games will doubt be crucial. In 2018 Poland topped their group from Denmark with Lewandowski finishing top scorer with 16 goals. They also finished top of their Euro202o group from Austria, so something will have to give.

I feel Hungary & Albania will have a good battle for third, but Hungary have momentum. In 2018 they finished third behind Portugal & Switzerland. However, against all odds, they qualified for Euro202o. They finished fourth in the group behind Croatia, Wales and Slovakia, but advanced to the play offs, beating Bulgaria in the semi’s and Iceland in the final with a dramatic stoppage time winner. Albania missed out in 2018, but did well to finish third behind Spain & Italy. However, after qualifying for their first major tournament for Euro2016, they couldn’t do it again as they finished fourth in their Euro2020 group, behind France, Turkey and Iceland.

Andorra and San Marino will battle to not finish bottom, however, all roads really lead to San Marino who have lost all 20 games in their last two major qualification groups. Where as Andorra picked up four points in each of their last two major qualifications groups.

GROUP J

GERMANY
ICELAND
ROMANIA
NORTH MACEDONIA
ARMENIA
LIECHTENSTEIN

All roads obviously lead to Germany topping this group, They won 10 out of 10 in 2018 and the last time they failed to top a WC group was in 2002, by goal difference. Also, no surprises they won 10 out of 10 in their Euro2020 group, where Serge Gnabry finished joint fifth top scorer with 8 goals. The last time they failed to top a Euro group was 2008. The bigger story will be the battle for second place. I have gone with Iceland, they surprised one and all by qualifying for back to back tournaments for Euro2106 and WC2018, after they topped their group in 2018 ahead of Croatia, Ukraine & Turkey. However, they failed to qualify for Euro2020, as they finished third behind France and Turkey, went to the play offs, beat Romania in the semi’s, but lost in the final to Hungary in dramatic fashion.

Romania will resume rivalries with Iceland and push them for second. In 2018 they finished a disappointing fourth behind Poland, Denmark and Montenegro. They also finished fourth in their Euro202o group, went to the play offs and as stated, lost in the semi’s 2-1 to Iceland, so will be gunning for revenge and their games on Sept 8th and Nov 11th will be interesting. North Macedonia however, have really been improving and could be a dark horse. In 2018 as Macedonia, they finished second from bottom  with 11 points. However, against all the odds, they qualified for their first major tournament for Euro2020. They finished third behind Poland & Austria, went to the play offs and beat Kosovo in the semi’s and then Georgia in the final.

Armenia will hope to keep pace and improve while staying as far away from the bottom as possible. They finished second from bottom in their last two major qualification groups. However. in In 2018 they finished on 7 points and in 2020, they finished with 10 points. As for Liechtenstein, they also have improved, in 2018 they lost all 10 of their qualifying games, however in Euro2020, they drew two and lost eight of their 10 games, but I am not expecting any further improvements.