As football and sport in general started to return, it was inevitable that Europe’s elite competition would return also. However, the questions were how and when? One of the very few good things to come from this pandemic is the emergence of this new, exciting looking, one off knockout tournament to be held in Lisbon, Portugal at the quarter finals stage, from August 12th until the final on August 23rd.
However, before that, there is just the small matter of four second leg, last 16 knockout games to be completed on August 7th & 8th, before the tournament in Portugal gets started.
Below is a preview, looking at the prospects of all the teams still left in the tournament.
THE FAVOURITES
Right off the bat, I think all eyes will be fixed on the Etihad on 7th August, where Real Madrid travel to Manchester in hope of overturning a 2-1 home deficit. Man City will be hurt at being blown away in the Premier League title race but we all know the Champions League is the one Guardiola wants most due to Man City’s poor record in the competition.
It’s a great story to kick off the tournament where Champions League royalty Madrid play Champions League novices Man City. Although they sit miles apart in the history books, we all know Man City’s recent domestic successes and financial power make them desperate for European glory and this a real clash of European powerhouses.
City sit firmly in the driving seat after their win in Madrid, but the La Liga champions are more than capable of winning in Manchester. Although Man City start as favourites, the tie can still go either way, which is great for the neutral who will be rubbing their hands at the prospect of this monumental battle, while taking into consideration that whoever emerges from this tie, will be the team to beat in Portugal.
With that said, the one off game style tournament evens the odds, so any type of advantages have to be sought elsewhere. With the semi final draw already made, you cannot help to think one of either Paris St Germain or Atletico Madrid have a massive opportunity to make it to the final. Atletico, beaten finalist in 1974, 2014 & 2016, must be feeling confident after beating holders Liverpool home and away, to make it to the quarter finals. Simeone has built a very respectable side over the years, where home and abroad they have proven they are a force, with their stubborn, solid and rugged defence which can be a real catalyst for European success.
PSG on the other hand, have never played in a Champions League final, they recently wrapped up their ninth Ligue One title in a row, but that continued league success is what many feel is partly why PSG have failed in Europe’s elite competition. For almost a decade in France, PSG seem not to be significantly challenged, so games become a stroll, but once you are in that mode, it’s hard to come out and hit top gear when you face the best teams in Europe. However, with a favourable draw, they will not have a better opportunity, even if Mbappe remains injured.
THE FAVOURABLES
Similar to PSG, Bayern Munich have dominated their domestic league, wrapping up their eighth Bundesliga title this season. The 2013 winners are going for a 6th Champions League title, but are in the unfavoured side of the draw.
With a 3-0 away, first leg win in Chelsea, they are expected to make it to Portugal, where they will set up a very tasty clash against either Napoli or Barcelona. Munich have huge pedigree in this tournament and have reached four semi finals, a quarter final and a last 16 since they last won in 2013.
With two Champions League titles, the last in 1996, but seven final defeats, losing their last five in a row, Juventus certainly feel they have a Champions League hoodoo and it wont help that they are in the unfavoured side of the draw. They are another team you can say suffered from dominating their domestic league, as they recently claimed their ninth Serie A title in a row. They go into their second leg with Lyon a goal down, with an ageing squad where even Ronaldo 35, but then again, he still is Ronaldo.
THE DARK HORSES
It may look a little weird to have the mighty Barcelona as dark horses but for this season at least, the Spanish giants have not been their old self and by their standards have struggled. They came second in La Liga, got knocked out the Copa Del Rey in the quarter finals, and lost in the Spanish Super cup in the semi final. Even Messi publicly criticised his team mates for their poor season.
Barca have won four of their five Champions League titles in the last 13 years. They have to negotiate a tricky second leg, last 16 tie with Napoli, where they drew 1-1 away in the first leg. If they get through that, they have a mouth water clash with Bayern, lose and it will be their first trophyless season in six years. That alone should spark the team into action, especially in a one off game tournament, which could benefit a side like Barcelona with Messi, who on any given day could beat anyone.
THE OUTSIDERS
Atalanta have made massive strides and surprised everyone, even themselves to finish third in Serie A for a second successive season, just five points off the champions Juve, qualifying the next season’s Champions League. They scored a massive 98 league goals, only Man City have scored more in Europe’s top leagues.
Scoring goals is what they do and after just sneaking through the group stage, they surprised Valencia beating them 8-4 an agg, to set up a mouth watering tie with PSG. The one off game tournament could go either way for them, they have not been great away from home, however, a team that scores as much goals as them, the one off game shoot out, could be the perfect setting to cause an upset.
Although they are not in the favourable side of the draw, Olympique Lyon have given themselves a real chance at travelling to Portugal, as they take a narrow 1-0, first leg, last 16 home lead to Italian champions Juve. Lyon reached the SF in 2010, since then, this is the fourth time they have reached the last 16, but have yet to get past that stage. They finished a very disappointing seventh in Ligue One and will not be competing in Europe next season, so all their hopes will rest on this game and beyond to salvage their season.
The Coppa Italia winners Napoli had an indifferent season. Gattuso took over the reigns from what I thought was a very surprising Ancelotti sacking in December. Although they were Coppa Italia winners for the first time in six years, in Serie A, after finishing in the top three for six of the past seven seasons and runner up in the last two seasons, they finished a very disappointing seventh this year, just qualifying for the Europa League. They drew with Barca 1-1 at home in their last 16, first leg tie and although they are not firing on all cylinders, nor are Barca, so they must think they will never have a better opportunity to beat the Spanish giants and set up a quarter final match with Bayern.
Another very surprise entrant into the Champions League quarter finals are Bundesliga fledgling side RB Leipzig. They surprised last seasons Champions League runners up Tottenham, by comfortably beating them 4-0 on agg. It’s amazing to think Leipzig are only in their 10th year of existence, the last six have been in Germany’s top division, where they have finished in the top three, in four of those seasons and have not finished outside the top six. This is only their second season in the Champions League and with stats like that they have nothing to lose and will certainly give Atletico Madrid a run for their money, despite losing their star man Timo Werner.
THE UNLIKELIES
Very few teams in the history of the Champions League knockout stages have overturned a losing home deficit. But worse still, no team have overturned a two goal home deficit, let alone a three goal home deficit. That’s the insurmountable task Chelsea have on their hands as they travel to Germany to face Bayern for their last 16, second leg tie.
Bayern were irresistible when they turned Chelsea over at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea will hope for a miracle combination of Munich complacency and Chelsea perfection to pull off what will be he greatest comeback in knockout history. Chelsea, recently losing the FA Cup final will motivate them to at least give a good account of themselves, but the best thing I can say for them is at least they finished their Premier League campaign in fourth and qualified for next seasons competition.
